5773 will be a decisive year in global politics and economy. Presidential elections in the U.S., Europe´s fight for an economic future and the crisis between Israel and Iran will shape our future.
Without fail, next year will see consequential decisions made – in international politics and in the global market. The elections in the United States have a strategic impact, not only for America. Regardless of whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney wins, the upcoming resident of the White House will have to consolidate the finances of the United States. The debt of over $16 trillion has to be reduced, otherwise the debt service will strangle any economic activity and additionally cause instability and depression.
Whether this can be done through higher taxes or lower government spending or a mixure of both will be decided. Since the U.S. is the global leading economic power, its fiscal policy will have a significant impact on international economy.
EU unity has priority
The fight for an economic future will also take place in Europe. Berlin supports a policy of saving. With this strategy and high quality products, Germany became the leading economic power in Europe. But the European Central Bank and the EU partners favor less restrictive monetary and fiscal policies.
Those who yearn for a return of the D-Mark or rigorous proponents of budgetary discipline were turned back by the German Constitutional Court. We will have to find a compromise. EU unity has priority.
On the brink of war
The Middle East is on the brink of war. Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Diplomacy and international sanctions have so far been ineffective. Germany’s Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is convinced that Iran’s president Ahmadinejad intends “to destroy Israel”. Teheran is playing for time; Jerusalem, but also Washington and Berlin are not willing to accept this any longer. In Jerusalem there is a fear that Teheran is using the time to attain a nuclear option. This is why Israel is urging for a ‘red line‘, which Iran should not overstep. Washington cautions, asks for patience. Minister Westerwelle warns of the consequences of a military strike.
There is still a chance for a clear policy on Iran to change course. The opportunity should and must be seized – to avoid a general war in the region. Peace is mandatory.