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What Germany expects from USA

Barack Obama won the elections. What can we expect from the president? Germans hope, that the renewed U.S. administration will help pave the way for a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians. But one thing is for sure: Strong ties between the U.S., Germany and Israel will remain.

On November 6, Germany was in election fever. TV channels provided special coverage of the United States presidential election all night long. Many Germans met at private events or public election parties, as experts talked about swing states and announced latest results. One might get the impression that, at least for some Germans, the U.S. presidential election was more important than the Bundestag elections.

Many Germans seemed to feel that they should have a say in the U.S. election. This not only underlines that the U.S. is still the leading power, whose actions and positions affect everyone all over the world, but also that there is still a very special relationship between our countries. We have not forgotten that the U.S. was the guarantor of West Germany’s freedom and security during the Cold War years.

Germans like Obama

The stability of the US-German partnership, built over decades, also ensures that we never really worry about the outcome of the elections. Although many Germans like President Obama better, they would have got along well with Mitt Romney. In the past, occasional disagreements notwithstanding, Germany has had excellent relations with both Democratic and Republican administrations, and we trust this will continue.

Surely, Germans also have a lot of expectations. Just as no day passes without a US politician urging Europeans to solve the Euro crisis and generate more growth, we are waiting eagerly for an economic recovery in the U.S. Given the interdependence of our societies, both sides have huge stakes in each other’s well-being. If one side is struggling, the other will not prosper.

President Barack Obama talks on the phone with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, in the Oval Office, Sept. 28, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Israel’s security

Due to the U.S.’s unique role in world politics, U.S. foreign policy also matters a lot to us. Germany appreciates that the U.S. continues to play a leading role on the global stage. For the solution of many pressing international issues, the U.S. remains indispensable. While America cannot bring about solutions single-handedly, without U.S. engagement, reaching meaningful agreements is often impossible.

The German government has repeatedly shown that this statement was more than cheap talk. For instance, it has provided Israel with high-tech submarines that are an essential asset in Israel’s deterrence arsenal.

Yet, we need an intensified discussion in Germany about what it would mean if the escalation of sanctions eventually does not deter Iran from building a nuclear weapon. While the chancellor’s statements have been widely reported, and are consensus among most of the political parties, there has been too little debate about what that might actually signify for German policy should push come to shove.

Deterrence is not an easy option

As of now, a diplomatic solution is possible. Time has not run out yet. The harsh and lively debates among experts and politicians in Israel testify to the complexity, ambivalence, and unpredictability of every possible course of action. While all other options appear to be bad, deterrence and containment may eventually be the least bad among them. In any case, we should be wary of underestimating the potential consequences of a military escalation – the result of which is completely uncertain. Yet, deterrence is also not an easy option. It needs resolution and clearly articulated red lines. The U.S. would have to play a major role in making deterrence credible without making military escalation likely.

Diplomacy and deterrence

Not only Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but also the Arab uprisings have proven to be particularly challenging concerns for our foreign policy – and, of course, even more so for Israel’s. Many have expressed their concern that the revolutions in the Arab world will render Israel even more isolated. However, the Arab spring might very well be an unexpected opportunity for Israel.

For the first time, Israel could stop being the only democratic state in the region, joined by the young Arab republics getting rid of their dictatorships. In the short run, it could be harder to make peace with whole societies instead of regimes. But it is the only peace that will be sustainable in the long run.

Times of rapid change

To be sure, recent news from the Middle East has not always been encouraging. Yet, I truly believe that, eventually, the Arab revolutions will turn out to be beneficial for Israel’s security and its relationships with its neighbors. Germans know that times of rapid international change not only bring uncertainty, but also usually provide opportunities that can be seized. When the Soviet empire began to crumble at the end of 1980’s, few, if any, experts believed German unification would be achieved shortly thereafter – without a shot being fired.

“Due to the U.S.’s unique role in world politics, U.S. foreign policy also matters a lot to us. Germany appreciates that the U.S. continues to play a leading role on the global stage,” says Wolfgang Ischinger

Transformations in Central and Eastern Europe

This is not to say one could compare the difficult situation of today’s Israel with Germany’s uncertainty in the face of the transformations in Central and Eastern Europe. It just means that human beings can overcome even the most protracted conflicts, which have materialized in walls, fortified borders and sophisticated military doctrines.

In this vein, we also hope there will be a renewed effort to solve the Palestinian question, which has unfortunately been sidelined to some degree. We expect president Obama to make a strong effort to pave the way for a two-state solution, in which the legitimate interests of both Israelis and Palestinians are taken into account. Germany would like to support them in achieving this goal. This is but one of the reasons why Germans – like Israelis – followed the U.S elections in November so closely.

Wolfgang Ischinger was State Secretary of the German Foreign Office and Ambassador in Washington and London. He is now Global Head of Government Relations and Public Policy at Allianz SE.

Photo Credit: Allianz,Tim Reinhart/pixelio.de

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